What Moves Gasoline Prices?

Crude oil and refinery capacity

Crude oil is a major input to gasoline production. Refinery outages or maintenance can tighten gasoline supply even if crude itself is plentiful. The difference between product and crude prices helps show the pressure on refining margins.

Driving demand and inventories

Travel patterns, fuel specifications and inventories affect gasoline prices. Wholesale RBOB is a blending component, not the tax-inclusive price at a petrol station. Retail prices include other costs and may adjust at a different pace.

The surprise matters

A report can be positive for gasoline supply without causing prices to fall. If traders expected an even bigger increase, the result may support prices instead. Compare the news with the expectations already reflected in the market.

Match the timing to the trade. A development expected after your option expires may have less influence on its underlying futures month than on a later contract. Local cash prices can also differ from the exchange benchmark.

Connecting the outlook to an option

A fuel distributor may buy gasoline calls to limit exposure to higher wholesale costs. A local pump-price hedge will not exactly match RBOB futures.

Suppose you buy a call before a report and the price rises. You can still lose money if the rise is too small to cover the premium. If uncertainty falls after the report, lower implied volatility can also reduce the price available when selling the option.

A put faces the same timing problem in the opposite direction. Use an outlook to frame a possible trade, then calculate its premium, breakeven and expiry exposure. Gasoline Options provides the worked examples. Trading access and contract details explains what to check before choosing a contract.

References

Market background and data. Examples are hypothetical and exclude fees. Contract information checked 14 September 2026.