Treasury Bond price changes reflect new information and how it compares with market expectations. An option trade adds a separate question: whether the move is large enough and early enough to recover its premium.
The main influences
Long-term inflation expectations, government borrowing and demand for duration can influence Treasury bond prices. Longer-maturity exposure may react strongly to a change in yields, but there is no fixed conversion from a yield move to an option profit.
The curve and the delivery basket
The futures contract references an eligible basket of bonds, not one newly issued bond of a fixed remaining maturity. Different parts of the curve and changes in the economics of delivery can influence the future.
Events and the option expiry
Choose an expiration that matches the scenario being considered. A market move after expiration cannot rescue an expired option. Before expiration, a reduction in implied volatility may lower its resale value even if the underlying moves in the expected direction.
The chart is context, not a settlement instruction. Use the relevant futures month and official contract reference when measuring an option’s value.