SOFR price changes reflect new information and how it compares with market expectations. An option trade adds a separate question: whether the move is large enough and early enough to recover its premium.
The main influences
Policy expectations and the expected path of overnight dollar rates move SOFR futures. A futures contract refers to a particular rate period, so an expected policy change can affect contract months differently.
The policy surprise
A rate cut that was already expected may cause little change. An altered outlook for future decisions may matter more than the current announcement. Match the event and the rate period to the option’s underlying future.
Events and the option expiry
Choose an expiration that matches the scenario being considered. A market move after expiration cannot rescue an expired option. Before expiration, a reduction in implied volatility may lower its resale value even if the underlying moves in the expected direction.
The chart is context, not a settlement instruction. Use the relevant futures month and official contract reference when measuring an option’s value.