Hedging Against Falling Gasoline Prices using Gasoline Futures

Gasoline producers can hedge against falling gasoline price by taking up a position in the gasoline futures market.

Gasoline producers can employ what is known as a short hedge to lock in a future selling price for an ongoing production of gasoline that is only ready for sale sometime in the future.

To implement the short hedge, gasoline producers sell (short) enough gasoline futures contracts in the futures market to cover the quantity of gasoline to be produced.

Gasoline Futures Short Hedge Example

An oil refinery has just entered into a contract to sell 5,000 kiloliters of gasoline, to be delivered in 3 months' time. The sale price is agreed by both parties to be based on the market price of gasoline on the day of delivery. At the time of signing the agreement, spot price for gasoline is JPY 31,820/kl while the price of gasoline futures for delivery in 3 months' time is JPY 32,000/kl.

To lock in the selling price at JPY 32,000/kl, the oil refinery can enter a short position in an appropriate number of TOCOM Gasoline futures contracts. With each TOCOM Gasoline futures contract covering 50 kiloliters of gasoline, the oil refinery will be required to short 100 futures contracts.

The effect of putting in place the hedge should guarantee that the oil refinery will be able to sell the 5,000 kiloliters of gasoline at JPY 32,000/kl for a total amount of JPY 160,000,000. Let's see how this is achieved by looking at scenarios in which the price of gasoline makes a significant move either upwards or downwards by delivery date.

Scenario #1: Gasoline Spot Price Fell by 10% to JPY 28,638/kl on Delivery Date

As per the sales contract, the oil refinery will have to sell the gasoline at only JPY 28,638/kl, resulting in a net sales proceeds of JPY 143,190,000.

By delivery date, the gasoline futures price will have converged with the gasoline spot price and will be equal to JPY 28,638/kl. As the short futures position was entered at JPY 32,000/kl, it will have gained JPY 32,000 - JPY 28,638 = JPY 3,362 per kiloliter. With 100 contracts covering a total of 5000 kiloliters, the total gain from the short futures position is JPY 16,810,000

Together, the gain in the gasoline futures market and the amount realised from the sales contract will total JPY 16,810,000 + JPY 143,190,000 = JPY 160,000,000. This amount is equivalent to selling 5,000 kiloliters of gasoline at JPY 32,000/kl.

Scenario #2: Gasoline Spot Price Rose by 10% to JPY 35,002/kl on Delivery Date

With the increase in gasoline price to JPY 35,002/kl, the gasoline producer will be able to sell the 5,000 kiloliters of gasoline for a higher net sales proceeds of JPY 175,010,000.

However, as the short futures position was entered at a lower price of JPY 32,000/kl, it will have lost JPY 35,002 - JPY 32,000 = JPY 3,002 per kiloliter. With 100 contracts covering a total of 5,000 kiloliters of gasoline, the total loss from the short futures position is JPY 15,010,000.

In the end, the higher sales proceeds is offset by the loss in the gasoline futures market, resulting in a net proceeds of JPY 175,010,000 - JPY 15,010,000 = JPY 160,000,000. Again, this is the same amount that would be received by selling 5,000 kiloliters of gasoline at JPY 32,000/kl.

Risk/Reward Tradeoff

As can be seen from the above examples, the downside of the short hedge is that the gasoline seller would have been better off without the hedge if the price of the commodity went up.

An alternative way of hedging against falling gasoline prices while still be able to benefit from a rise in gasoline price is to buy gasoline put options.

Learn More About Gasoline Futures & Options Trading

• Gasoline Futures Basics
• Buying Gasoline Futures to Profit from a Rise in Gasoline Prices
• Selling Gasoline Futures to Profit from a Fall in Gasoline Prices
• Gasoline Options Basics
• Gasoline Call Option Trading Basics
• Gasoline Put Option Trading Basics
• Hedging Against Rising Gasoline Prices with Gasoline Futures

You May Also Like

Continue Reading...

Buying Straddles into Earnings

Buying straddles is a great way to play earnings. Many a times, stock price gap up or down following the quarterly earnings report but often, the direction of the movement can be unpredictable. For instance, a sell off can occur even though the earnings report is good if investors had expected great results....[Read on...]

Writing Puts to Purchase Stocks

If you are very bullish on a particular stock for the long term and is looking to purchase the stock but feels that it is slightly overvalued at the moment, then you may want to consider writing put options on the stock as a means to acquire it at a discount....[Read on...]

What are Binary Options and How to Trade Them?

Also known as digital options, binary options belong to a special class of exotic options in which the option trader speculate purely on the direction of the underlying within a relatively short period of time.....[Read on...]

Investing in Growth Stocks using LEAPS® options

If you are investing the Peter Lynch style, trying to predict the next multi-bagger, then you would want to find out more about LEAPS® and why I consider them to be a great option for investing in the next Microsoft®.... [Read on...]

Effect of Dividends on Option Pricing

Cash dividends issued by stocks have big impact on their option prices. This is because the underlying stock price is expected to drop by the dividend amount on the ex-dividend date....[Read on...]

Bull Call Spread: An Alternative to the Covered Call

As an alternative to writing covered calls, one can enter a bull call spread for a similar profit potential but with significantly less capital requirement. In place of holding the underlying stock in the covered call strategy, the alternative....[Read on...]

Dividend Capture using Covered Calls

Some stocks pay generous dividends every quarter. You qualify for the dividend if you are holding on the shares before the ex-dividend date....[Read on...]

Leverage using Calls, Not Margin Calls

To achieve higher returns in the stock market, besides doing more homework on the companies you wish to buy, it is often necessary to take on higher risk. A most common way to do that is to buy stocks on margin....[Read on...]

Day Trading using Options

Day trading options can be a successful, profitable strategy but there are a couple of things you need to know before you use start using options for day trading.... [Read on...]

What is the Put Call Ratio and How to Use It

Learn about the put call ratio, the way it is derived and how it can be used as a contrarian indicator.... [Read on...]

Understanding Put-Call Parity

Put-call parity is an important principle in options pricing first identified by Hans Stoll in his paper, The Relation Between Put and Call Prices, in 1969. It states that the premium of a call option implies a certain fair price for the corresponding put option having the same strike price and expiration date, and vice versa.... [Read on...]

Understanding the Greeks

In options trading, you may notice the use of certain greek alphabets like delta or gamma when describing risks associated with various positions. They are known as "the greeks".... [Read on...]

Valuing Common Stock using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

Since the value of stock options depends on the price of the underlying stock, it is useful to calculate the fair value of the stock by using a technique known as discounted cash flow.... [Read on...]

Follow Us on Facebook to Get Daily Strategies & Tips!

Gasoline Options & Futures

Futures Basics

Energy Futures

Options Strategy Finder

Outlook on Underlying:
Arbitrage Bearish Bullish Neutral - Bearish on Volatility Neutral - Bullish on Volatility

Profit Potential:
Limited Unlimited

Loss Potential:
Limited Unlimited

Credit/Debit:
Credit Debit

No. Legs:
1 2 3 4